An interactive SEIRD model · v1.5 (Beta)
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The Epidemic Simulator.

Tune the parameters of a given pathogen and watch how it moves through a population. Built from a compartmental model used by epidemiologists since the 1920s. Choose a preset below, and adjust the parameters to see how this changes the outcome.

© 2026 The Epidemic Simulator. Educational & media use permitted with attribution. License terms
Presets
Peak active cases ⓘ
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Total infected ⓘ
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Total deaths ⓘ
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Attack rate ⓘ
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Sources & References

Disease Parameters

Andes Hantavirus: Martínez et al. (2020). "Super-Spreaders" and Person-to-Person Transmission of Andes Virus in Argentina. New England Journal of Medicine, 383(23), 2230-2241. R₀=2.12 calculated from 2018-19 outbreak. CFR estimates from Jonsson et al. (2010). Clinical Microbiology Reviews, 23(2), 412-441.
COVID-19: WHO COVID-19 Dashboard (2023). R₀ estimates from Liu et al. (2020). Emerging Infectious Diseases, 26(7), 1470-1477. CFR from Brazeau et al. (2022). Nature, 603, 557-564.
Measles: Guerra et al. (2017). The basic reproduction number (R₀) of measles. Journal of Theoretical Biology, 414, 120-130. WHO Measles Fact Sheet (2023).
1918 Influenza: Mills et al. (2004). Transmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature, 432(7019), 904-906. Johnson & Mueller (2002). Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 76(1), 105-115.
Seasonal Influenza: Biggerstaff et al. (2014). Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal influenza. BMC Infectious Diseases, 14, 480. CDC Influenza Disease Burden (2023).
Ebola: WHO Ebola Response Team (2014). Ebola virus disease in West Africa. New England Journal of Medicine, 371(13), 1177-1180. Althaus (2014). PLOS Currents Outbreaks.
Smallpox: Gani & Leach (2001). Transmission potential of smallpox in contemporary populations. Nature, 414(6865), 748-751. Henderson et al. (1999). JAMA, 281(22), 2127-2137.

Model & Methods

SEIRD Framework: Kermack & McKendrick (1927). A contribution to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proceedings of the Royal Society A, 115(772), 700-721. Extended SEIRD formulation from Hethcote (2000). SIAM Review, 42(4), 599-653.
Intervention Effectiveness: Chu et al. (2020). Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection for COVID-19. The Lancet, 395(10242), 1973-1987. Flaxman et al. (2020). Nature, 584(7820), 257-261.
Population Data: UN World Population Prospects 2022. US Census Bureau International Database (2023). World Bank Open Data (2023).

Note: Parameter estimates vary across studies and populations. Values used represent reasonable approximations for educational modeling. Consult primary literature for research applications.

Copyright & License

Copyright Notice

© 2026 The Epidemic Simulator

This work includes original software, epidemiological modeling, data compilation, interface design, and scientific content curation.

License Terms

Permitted Uses: Free use allowed for educational, research, media, journalism, and non-commercial purposes with proper attribution.

Attribution Requirements: Any use must include:

  • Credit: "The Epidemic Simulator (epidemicsimulator.com)"
  • Link back to original source when possible
  • Notation if content has been modified

Media & Journalism: News organizations, journalists, and media outlets may use screenshots, data exports, or reference the simulator in reporting with attribution. No permission required for editorial use.

Prohibited Uses:

  • Commercial redistribution of the complete application
  • Removal of copyright notices or attribution
  • Misrepresentation as your own work
  • Use for medical or policy decision-making

Commercial Licensing

For commercial use, custom development, or licensing inquiries, contact us using the form above.

DMCA & Copyright Enforcement

Unauthorized copying will be subject to DMCA takedown requests. We monitor for unauthorized reproductions.

This simplified model cannot predict real outbreaks with any stated degree of accuracy. Real epidemics involve complex factors not captured in educational simulations.

Data Validation Notice: The epidemiological data, parameters, and model outputs displayed in this simulator are still being validated and refined. The information may contain errors, inconsistencies, or inaccuracies and should not be relied upon for medical decisions, public health policy, or professional epidemiological work. This tool is intended for educational and exploratory purposes only. Always consult official health authorities and peer-reviewed research for authoritative epidemiological information.